The Trump administration will slap a 10 percent tariff on about $200 billion in Chinese goods next week and more than double the rate in 2019, deepening what’s shaping up to be a prolonged trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.
If Beijing retaliates against US farmers and industry – as it has previously vowed – the US will immediately pursue further tariffs on about $267 billion of Chinese imports, President Donald Trump said in a statement Monday evening, repeating a threat he made earlier this month.
Vice Premier Liu He, President Xi Jinping’s top economic adviser, is set to convene a meeting in Beijing on Tuesday morning to discuss the government’s response, according to a person briefed on the matter. Markets traded nervously, with the yuan lower against the dollar, Chinese shares mixed and S&P futures weaker.
China has previously said it would retaliate against the $200 billion round of tariffs by imposing duties on $60 billion of US goods ranging from liquefied natural gas to aircraft.
The Trump administration is giving American businesses a chance to adjust and look for alternative supply chains by delaying an increase of the tariff to 25 percent on January 1 for the $200 billion batch of Chinese goods, according to two senior administration officials who briefed reporters on Monday. The 10 percent tariff will take effect on September 24.
“For months, we have urged China to change these unfair practices, and give fair and reciprocal treatment to American companies,” Trump said. “We have been very clear about the type of changes that need to be made, and we have given China every opportunity to treat us more fairly. But, so far, China has been unwilling to change its practices.”
Smart watches, playpens
Smart watches and Bluetooth devices were removed from the tariff list, along with bicycle helmets, high chairs, children’s car seats, playpens and certain industrial chemicals. They were among 300 tariff lines scrubbed from the preliminary target list released in July, according to one of the officials. No items were added, the officials said.
Trump continues to ratchet up pressure on Beijing to change its trade practices even as he floats the idea of talks. Business leaders are warning the high-stakes strategy could upend their supply chains and raise costs, as economists worry Trump’s tactics could derail the broadest global upswing in years.
The US chamber of commerce, retailers, agricultural groups and some members of Trump’s own Republican party have spoken out against his tariff campaign. It’s also divided his advisers between China hawks like U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, a former Wall Street banker who is seeking a trade deal.
“It appears that the administration responded to some industry concerns, but for many American businesses and consumers this still represents a rapid acceleration of costs and much higher uncertainty,” said Rufus Yerxa, president of the National Foreign Trade Council. “Business hates uncertainty. They’d rather have an imperfect trading relationship than this much chaos.”
The decision throws into doubt efforts to reach a diplomatic breakthrough in the conflict. China would reject new trade talks if Trump moved ahead with the next round of tariffs on Chinese products, two people familiar with the matter said earlier on Monday.
The administration earlier this month floated the idea of talks led by Mnuchin, with Liu expected to lead the Beijing delegation. Washington remains open to negotiations but China must show it’s seriously willing to make systemic economic changes, the senior administration officials said on Monday.
With the latest tariff escalation, American consumers could start feeling the cost in everyday goods. It brings all Chinese imports subject to added tariffs to $250 billion, roughly half of China’s shipments to the US last year. The Trump administration in July and August already imposed 25 percent tariffs on $50 billion on Chinese goods, sparking in-kind retaliation.
Additional tariffs on $267 billion of imports from China would push the cumulative total beyond the amount of goods the U.S. bought from the Asian nation last year.
“The escalating US-China trade war will further weigh on Chinese export orders and business sentiment, particularly if no trade deal can be reached by the end of 2018,” said Rajiv Biswas, Asia Pacific chief economist at IHS Markit in Singapore.
Trump told reporters earlier on Monday his impression is that Beijing wants to talk about a deal, and that he thinks “it’s going to work out very well with China.”
Officials from both countries have met four times for formal talks, most recently in August, when Treasury’s undersecretary for international affairs, David Malpass, led discussions in Washington with Chinese vice minister Wang Shouwen.
White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow has indicated that Trump could be willing to meet face-to-face with Xi to smooth over trade tensions at the United Nations General Assembly later this month or at the Group of 20 nations leaders’ summit in Argentina from November 30-December 1.
The White House has sought to pressure Beijing to reduce its trade surplus with the US and protect intellectual property rights of American companies, which it says are abused in China.
The administration revised the list of goods that will be hit by tariffs following a commentary period and public hearings last month.